How Long Will It Live?

So, I was reading an intersting article at Massively today and it got me thinking…how long until WoW dies?

I’ve been an EQer since beta. EQ capped at about 500k subscribers. It’s been almost 10 years now and EQ is still going strong. While not as strong as 5 years ago, but Sony recently said that there are about 200k subscribers. Not too shabby for a game that started up a decade ago. By going by math like that though, it would appear that WoW’s 12million+ subscribers could easily carry the game past the 20 year mark.

Yes, that’s a very bold statement, but think about it. After 10 years, Everquest is still profitable, as is Ultima Online which started almost two years before EQ. Blizzard blew their subscription numbers out of the water. So, this brings two major questions to mind that I would like to see everyone’s opinion on:

1. How long will WoW really go and how long will it be #1?

2. Will there every truly be a game that is a “WoW Killer” or something that will steal an actually substantial number of WoW’s subscriptions?

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